How do we pull back the curtain on China’s use of AI in its military?
Cole McFaul, senior research analyst at Georgetown University, explores this key question.
Faculty Bio:
Cole McFaul is a Senior Research Analyst and an Andrew W. Marshall Fellow at Georgetown University’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET), where he mainly focuses on emerging technology competition in the Asia-Pacific and China’s science and technology ecosystem. Prior to joining CSET, Cole researched the political economy of China’s international engagement strategies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center at Stanford University. Cole holds a B.A. in Political Science and an M.A. in East Asian Studies from Stanford University.
Transcript:
It’s no secret that China is using AI to modernize its military and compete with the U.S. and other rivals. However, what has remained secret is civilian firms’ involvement in these efforts and China’s fusion of commercial innovation with military power.
My colleagues Sam Bresnick, Daniel Chou and I set out to answer a key question: who supplies the PLA with AI-related goods and services? Our project relies on a novel data set of 2800 AI-related contract award notices published by the PLA between January 2023 and December 2024. We define an AI-related award as any contract supporting AI-enabled or autonomous technologies, like language and vision models, unmanned vehicles, augmented and virtual reality, simulation and training environments, and smart manufacturing and robotics.
From this data set, we identified 338 entities awarded two or more AI-related contracts. Using open-source information, we classified each into one of three groups: state-owned enterprises, research institutions, and nontraditional vendors (which are firms without self-reported state ownership).
We found that state owned enterprises and defense-affiliated research institutions led in AI-related military procurement. Institutions like AVIC, NORINCO, the Chinese Academy of Sciences, and the Seven Sons of National Defense dominate the top of the list.
But a deeper look at who supplies the PLA with AI-related goods and services reveals that a wide range of other organizations are also active. Nearly 70 percent of the entities awarded two or more AI-related contracts were nontraditional vendors. Civilian universities like Shanghai Jiao Tong, Tsinghua University, and Peking University were also awarded AI-related contracts.
Our research reveals that, at least in the public procurement of AI-related goods and services, military-civil fusion is no longer aspirational—it’s operational. Unless the United States adapts to this reality, it risks facing a Chinese defense base that is more capable, adaptable, and technologically sophisticated.
Read More:
[CSET] - Pulling Back the Curtain on China’s Military-Civil Fusion
[CSET] - Civilian Tech Is Powering China’s Military
